Well… My crystal ball has been right and wrong in following the ongoing soap opera that is the American Economy.

With talk of (at least partial) nationalization of BofA and Citi, I think I was misguided in my assesment of their strength. My logic was that financially strapped organizations wouldn’t be acquiring large companies who would only make the cash situation worse - I was apparently wrong. I also understated my swag on the size of the eventual bail out by about 100% as well, although it could come down significantly unless they natioanalize AIG, BofA and/or Citi.

I don’t think I put it in a prior post, but I have a mental threashold of 12% unemployment to trigger the word, “depression”.  It was recently announced that California is at 10% - painfully close.  My portfolio of strong stocks has taken a beating in the last couple weeks that I didn’t think possible.

We’ll see where it goes.

 
– John

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